Three Peaks Trading

2017: Standing Firm Against the Crowd — Long Before Crypto Went Mainstream

In June 2017 — months before the crypto mania and years before institutions took Bitcoin seriously — I was already deep in the research. Even when people around me were dismissing crypto or spreading uninformed negativity, I pushed back and encouraged people to do real homework instead of repeating fear-driven talking points.

This post wasn't about hype. It was about independent thinking. About studying market behavior instead of following opinions pulled out of thin air. This was the earliest visible sign of what later became the Three Peaks Trading mindset: curiosity, research, and conviction built on understanding — not hype or bandwagoning.

I didn't jump into crypto because everyone else was excited. I jumped in while most people were still laughing at it — and I stayed because the underlying structure made sense long before the mainstream caught on.

2017: I Didn't Enter This Niche to Sell Courses — I Entered as a Trader Getting Hit by Reality

In August 2017, I wasn't a "guru," I wasn't selling anything, and I wasn't trying to build an audience. I was just a hyper-focused, deeply curious trader experiencing crypto volatility in real time — the same way most people do when they first start out: with raw emotion, stress, and zero structure.

I posted publicly that even though I was having an incredible run, I would never want to trade for a living because the emotional swings were brutal. That's how honest I was. No hype. No flexing. Just the truth about what it feels like when you're trading without a framework.

But over the years, that stress is exactly what pushed me to build the Three Peaks Trading framework — a system that removes the emotion, removes the panic, and replaces it with structure, clarity, and confidence. Only after I mastered that did my mindset shift from "this is stressful" to "this is teachable."

I didn't rush into this niche to sell shovels. I lived the chaos, solved it, and then began showing others the same path — from emotional trading to calm, cycle-driven clarity.

2018: Expanding Beyond Crypto — Mastering Stocks, Indices, and Market Structure

By early 2018, I wasn't just dabbling in markets anymore — I was fully obsessed with understanding how ALL markets behave. Crypto was my first arena, but I quickly realized that true mastery required studying stocks, indices, volatility, and cross-asset relationships.

This post marked the moment I intentionally expanded my education from crypto into traditional markets. Not to chase a trend, but because I saw the deeper truth: market psychology is universal. Patterns repeat across BTC, QQQ, Gold, and every major asset class once you know what to look for.

This was the foundation for what later became the Three Peaks Trading framework — a system built on behavior, cycles, ratios, and structure, not hype or indicators. While everyone else chased signals, I chased understanding.

2018: Calling the $3k–$3.5k Bottom AND Predicting No New Highs Until 2020

While most traders in 2018 were calling premature bottoms or screaming for an immediate rebound, I mapped Bitcoin's decline against the 2014–2015 cycle and publicly stated that a true bottom in the $3,000–$3,500 range was still very possible — even likely.

But I didn't stop there. I went further and projected that if the cycle continued following historic structure, Bitcoin wouldn't make new all-time highs until sometime in 2020.

Both predictions turned out to be dead-on. Bitcoin bottomed at $3,122 in December 2018, then spent years consolidating and re-accumulating before finally breaking its all-time high in late 2020. This was another early proof that cycle symmetry and behavioral structure were far more reliable than the noise dominating crypto at the time.

This wasn't guesswork. This was forward-looking cycle modeling — the same foundation that later evolved into the Three Peaks Trading framework.

2018: Calling the 83% Bottom

While most of the market screamed that Bitcoin had bottomed early, I said the real bottom was at an 80%+ drawdown. BTC bottomed a few months later at 83%.

2019: Warning the Market They Were Repeating the Same Mistakes From 2018

In June 2019, while the market was heating up again and people were slipping back into euphoric thinking, I reposted the classic psychology cycle chart with a reminder that many traders had learned absolutely nothing from 2018. The emotions, the narratives, the denial — all of it was returning exactly on schedule.

I wasn't reposting this as a meme. I was showing people that the same behavior patterns were emerging: denial, complacency, and irrational confidence. When the crowd rushes back into bullishness too quickly, it's almost always a sign that the next phase — anxiety and panic — is around the corner.

Sure enough, Bitcoin topped shortly after and rolled over again, following the psychology cycle almost beat for beat. This was yet another early sign that the Three Peaks Trading framework wasn't just about charts — it was about understanding human behavior driving every market cycle.

2019: Calling Litecoin’s Collapse to the $40 Level

On July 18, 2019, I published a public breakdown titled “Litecoin Headed to $40?”, warning that the post-halving hype cycle had already exhausted and that LTC’s structural support sat far lower than most traders realized.

The broader crypto crowd was still extremely bullish — but the chart showed weakening trend structure, and a clear path toward a retest of the multi-year base around $40.

Months later, Litecoin did exactly that, bleeding down into the same support zone mapped out in the original video. Another example of identifying structural weakness long before the crowd accepted reality.

2019: Warning of a Major Breakdown — Targeting the Low $4,000s Months in Advance

In August 2019, when most of the market was still extremely bullish coming off the mid-cycle rally, I publicly warned that Bitcoin was forming a clean head-and-shoulders pattern with a critical support level at $10,000.

I told people plainly: if BTC fails to hold $10k, the breakdown target would land in the low $4,000s. This wasn't fear mongering — it was structural analysis based on the same behavior models I'd been developing since 2017.

Months later, during the COVID panic, Bitcoin collapsed directly into the $3,800–$4,100 region — almost perfectly matching the projection. Once again, the framework identified danger long before the market reacted.

This was yet another example of forward-looking clarity while everyone else was caught up in emotion and hopium — a pattern that has repeated across every cycle for more than seven years.

2019: Recalling My 2018 Bottom Call — And Issuing a New Warning the Crowd Ignored

In August 2019, I publicly reminded people that on August 10th, 2018 I called the crypto bottom within $200 — months before it actually happened. At the time of that prediction, Bitcoin was trading near $7k. Four months later, it bottomed at $3,128.

Instead of listening, the crowd mocked the idea and insisted the bottom was already in. Anyone who shorted when I made that call could have captured more than a 50% move — yet the majority refused to even consider the structure because it didn't match their hopium.

A year later, I found myself in the same position again: calling for a move back to the $4,200 region while the market stayed irrationally bullish. And once again, people insisted "this time is different" — the four most expensive words in market history.

My point wasn't that bearish outcomes were guaranteed. It was that anything was possible, and structural targets remain valid until the market proves otherwise. This mindset — clarity over emotion, structure over narratives — is exactly what eventually became the Three Peaks Trading framework.

2019: Warning the Market — And Even a Billionaire — About a Coming Breakdown

In September 2019, when Tyler Winklevoss tweeted "Buy the dip!", the crowd reacted with blind enthusiasm. I didn't. I replied publicly, pointing out that the market was in a Wyckoff distribution pattern — and that the real dip hadn't even happened yet.

I wasn't trying to be contrarian for attention. I was doing what I always do: follow structure, ignore personalities, and evaluate the motives behind the message. If you own a crypto exchange, of course you want people to "buy the dip." But that doesn't mean the chart agrees.

Bitcoin had already topped and was quietly rolling over when he tweeted "buy the dip," but the real pain hadn't even started yet. After that tweet, BTC went on to fall more than 50% — exactly what the Wyckoff distribution schematic was signaling. While influencers encouraged people to buy, I was one of the few warning that this wasn't a dip… it was the beginning of a breakdown.

Anyone can repeat motivational slogans. Very few people can correctly spot a falling knife before it happens.

2019: Predicting the $3.5k–$4.2k Crash & the $52k–$75k Top

BTC dropped to $3.8k in March 2020 — dead center of my band. Then topped at $69k in November 2021 — inside my projected range of $52k–$75k and right in line with my "pre 2022" prediction. In other words, I didn't just predict the low; I predicted the following cycle high and the WHEN and I did it more than TWO years in advance, even as 'gurus' in the space mocked my predictions.

2021: Identifying AMC's Multi-Year Accumulation Bottom — One Day Before the Meme-Stock Explosion

On January 26th, 2021, while AMC traded around $5 and nobody outside Reddit was paying attention, I posted this multi-year structural analysis showing a massive double-bottom accumulation pattern forming. This wasn't news-driven, it wasn't hype-driven — it was pure market behavior and price structure.

The very next day, the meme-stock supernova began. AMC launched into one of the largest retail-driven momentum events in modern market history, exploding from single digits into the $20s, $40s, and eventually the $70s in the months that followed.

While the world thought this came out of nowhere, the structure had been building for years. The accumulation, the volume profile, the rounding, the compression — all the ingredients were there. Most traders only saw a "WSB pump." I saw a completed long-term bottom forming before the ignition ever happened.

This is the Three Peaks Trading framework in action: ignore headlines, ignore hype, ignore narratives — follow structure. It works in crypto, stocks, indices, commodities, and even meme-driven markets. Price behavior never lies.

2021: Calling the $100k–$150k Next Cycle Top

In May 2021, while influencers screamed "supercycle," I mapped out the next top at $100k–$150k. BTC hit $126k in 2025.

2021: Calling the Gold Bottom Before a Multi-Year Supercycle

Gold was testing major support with a 61.8% retracement and a textbook double bottom. I posted the setup when Gold was near $1,700.

What followed was enormous: Gold ran from ~$1,700 to over $4,000/oz by late 2025. This proved the Three Peaks Trading framework works across any market — not just crypto.

2021: Flash-Crash Wick Play — Up 500%+ in a Single Day

On October 22nd, 2021, I shared this post after a violent flash crash on a major exchange briefly sent Bitcoin down to the $8k–$18k range. Unlike most traders who panic or chase breakouts, I always keep strategic low-ball bids sitting far below market — levels where real liquidity vacuums and wick events tend to occur.

That morning, every one of those bids filled. Within hours, Bitcoin snapped back to $62,000+. The result? A 500%+ gain in a matter of minutes from fills as low as $8,897.

People call this "luck," but this is a Three Peaks Trading principle: be prepared for liquidity events before they happen. Flash crashes are not random — they're structural. Liquidity pockets, cascading liquidations, and thin-order-book mechanics create explosive wicks that reward traders who understand how markets truly function under stress.

Most traders never see setups like this because they think only in terms of patterns and indicators. But markets are driven by liquidity, psychology, and structural inefficiencies — and when you understand all three, moves like this become opportunities, not surprises.

2021: Identifying BTC's Complacency Phase vs Tech Stocks Before the Crash

On November 18th, 2021, I published this relative-strength analysis comparing Bitcoin against the Nasdaq 100. While most of the market was still euphoric and screaming for a "supercycle," BTC had already transitioned into the Complacency phase of the market psychology cycle.

This wasn't a price chart — it was a BTC/US100 relative performance chart, revealing a critical divergence: Bitcoin's emotional structure was already rolling over, even while tech stocks were still pushing higher. Relative-strength cycle analysis is one of the most powerful and overlooked tools for spotting macro tops before they become obvious.

Weeks later, the entire crypto market began its multi-month collapse. Bitcoin followed the exact emotional cycle mapped here, sliding from Complacency into Anxiety, Denial, Capitulation, and finally Depression. While the crowd was still euphoric, the structure had already warned that the top was in.

Most traders look at charts in isolation. Three Peaks Trading mapping goes deeper — analyzing intermarket psychology, relative strength cycles, and macro sentiment shifts to identify where assets truly are in the behavioral cycle. BTC had already peaked — and this chart showed it before the rest of the world caught on.

2022: Calling the Multi-Year Market Breakdown Before It Happened

On February 11th, 2022, while most people believed the stock market was still in a healthy uptrend, I posted this analysis of the Russell 3000 showing a clear weekly double-top forming — one of the most reliable high-timeframe reversal patterns in technical analysis.

Not only had the structure completed, but the index had already broken its neckline and was retesting it from below — a classic sign that a deeper multi-leg decline was likely coming next. I mapped out the projected breakdown path while most analysts were still calling for new highs.

What followed was one of the largest broad-market drawdowns in modern history. The Russell 3000, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all collapsed through 2022, with the Russell dropping over 30% in a slow-motion, multi-wave breakdown that followed the structure almost exactly.

This was not guesswork. It was high-timeframe structure doing what it always does. When distribution completes and a neckline breaks, markets don't drift — they unravel. While most traders and analysts were blindsided, the Three Peaks Trading framework identified the reversal months before the damage became obvious.

2022: Calling the Lumber Breakdown Before the 70% Crash

On March 15, 2022, I publicly posted that lumber had confirmed a breakdown inside what I coined as the Hodler Soul Crushing Zone.

Lumber was over $1,100 at the time of the post. Immediately following the post, it collapsed roughly 70% — falling to roughly $337 by March 2023, just a year later.

Again, more evidence that the Three Peaks Trading framework is effective in ALL major markets!

2022: Calling the Bear Flag Breakdown Before the Meltdown

In April 2022 — months before Terra/LUNA, 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX collapsed — I publicly warned that Bitcoin was forming a dangerous bear flag with a projected breakdown near $11,975.

When tech stocks rolled over, Bitcoin followed exactly as expected. BTC later fell to $15k as the crypto ecosystem detonated.

2023: Calling Silver’s “Depression Phase” Bottom Before the Reversal

On April 8, 2023, I publicly posted an analysis suggesting that silver (SLV) was not in danger, not “dead money,” but actually past the classic Depression phase of a long-term market cycle.

While some investors had written it off, I highlighted that the structure looked far more like the late Disbelief stage — the same psychological turning point that precedes every major cyclical recovery.

The post was shared publicly on my Facebook profile, together with a long-term SLV chart overlaid with the Psychology of a Market Cycle diagram, showing exactly why the bottoming structure was forming. Silver proceeded to pump from less than $23 oz to over $54 oz by late 2025.

2023–2025: Mapping BTC/QQQ Disbelief → Optimism Before It Happened

Almost nobody uses BTC/QQQ — but it perfectly reveals real crypto cycles. I identified "disbelief" in real time. The chart followed the structure exactly into 2025.

2024: Publicly Calling for Bitcoin’s Move Toward $100k+

In July 2024, I published a video titled “Bitcoin Prepping for $100k+?” — breaking down why Bitcoin’s correction wasn’t the beginning of a new bear market, but a structural pause before the next major expansion phase.

I mapped out the bullish continuation structure and highlighted the macro conditions pointing toward a six-figure target. Months later, the market followed the exact path I laid out.

2025: Calling Bitcoin’s Distribution Top and the Drop into 80–85k

On November 7, 2025 when Bitcoin was sitting at ~$103,000, I released a full Bitcoin market update outlining why the structure had shifted into a clear distribution pattern — complete with BC, ST, UT, LPSY, and a Sign of Weakness — all matching classic Wyckoff Phase D behavior.

While most traders were still expecting continuation and “one more leg up,” the chart showed exhaustion, failed demand, and a textbook Last Point of Supply. In that video, I mapped out a potential markdown targeting the 80k–85k zone.

Not long after, Bitcoin rolled over exactly as outlined — breaking structure, accelerating into markdown, and landing in the same support zone projected in the original analysis.